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Daily market wire 2 February 2018

Mixed for grains and lower for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat was down -0.75c to 451c,
  • Kansas wheat down -0.25c to 467c,
  • corn up 0.25c to 361.75c,
  • Soybean down -10.5c to 996.5c,
  • Winnipeg Canola down -3.10$C to 500$C,
  • Matif canola down -3.5€ to 346.25€.
  • The Dow Jones up 29.81 to 26179.21,
  • Crude Oil up 1.369c to US$66.10/barrel,
  • AUD down to 0.804c,
  • CAD down to 1.226c, (AUDCAD 0.986)
  • EUR up to 1.251c (AUDEUR 0.642).

Soybeans

Poor export sales and an unchanged Argy weather outlook were the pressure-drivers in beans overnight. Export sales were a marketing-year low at 359,000t vs. market expectations of 800,000t. Argy forecast is still expecting 50+mm rain 10-12 days out, which was enough to encourage new shorts. Meal was down US$3.80/t, while soy oil was down 18 points.

Canola

With no major story of its own, canola suffered in sympathy with beans, breaking through its 20-day moving average to settle on the key flat price level of Can$500/t.

In positive news for Aussie farmers, the AUD/CAD has fallen 1.3pc in the last two sessions, which should see more attractive local prices.

Wheat

Export sales in wheat at 289,000t were much lower than the market’s expectations of around 400,000t.

Implied volatility in March Soft Red Winter wheat futures was down almost 2.5pc at 21.48pc.

The weather outlook in the southern plains was unchanged, though funds were noted on the bid side of Hard Red Winter wheat futures, which should see an increase in the long position there now.

Matif futures were down a further €2.25/t, feeling the pressure from Pakistan’s emergence onto the export scene. It’s expected that it will export around 2Mt of wheat, which is 1.1Mt above its 10-year average.

Saudi Arabia has announced a tender tomorrow to purchase 750,000t of milling wheat for April/June shipment, of which most is expected to originate from Germany and the Baltic regions.

Corn

As expected US corn export sales were very strong at 1.8Mt due to their attractive relative value, this was not enough to warrant a bullish outbreak though, given the softness in oilseeds markets. The corn market is a dark horse at present, if the current demand profile can continue on the same path. There is a lot of new crop production to get through, with old crop supplies declining and futures in close proximity to seasonal lows.

Australia

With month end out of the way and a softer US session the Aussie market took a breather yesterday. It’s hard to really call it a breather, given how quiet things have been, bit it was in relative terms.

The Aussie dollar showed some promise overnight, down almost 1pc at .7980, before recovering most of its losses into the close. We need a catalyst in the form of export demand or a currency fall, so until then expect very little of Aussie cash pricing.

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